Up ya go! We have a cracking ATP first-round clash lined up for Sat, 15 Aug, 8:15 am AEST as Estonian Mark Lajal takes on Argentina's Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Lajal comes into this contest with huge momentum, boasting four wins from his last five outings overall, while world number 52 Cerundolo is looking to bounce back after a tough last start.

Who will win? Numbers point to Lajal

The numbers say Lajal is hitting his stride at the right time. The Estonian, currently ranked 157, holds four wins in his last five overall matches, most recently securing a victory against Aleksandar Vukic on Fri, 14 Aug. On the flip side, Cerundolo is coming off a loss to Casper Ruud on Thu, 6 Aug, bringing his recent overall run to two wins and three losses across his past five outings.

Cerundolo brings plenty of top-level pedigree with a ranking of 52 and a 14-15 YTD record this season, compared to Lajal's 4-7 career record on the main tour. However, with limited recent head-to-head history in a 0-0 career matchup, current form jumps off the page. Lajal sits as the 1.82 favourite on the board, while Cerundolo presents as a 2.00 underdog for the match win.

Head to Head
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipRafael Jodar$2.00Taylor Fritz$1.82
Solid tickOur tip: Mark Lajal. Lajal carries fantastic recent momentum with four wins from his last five overall outings.

Tipped at $1.82 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

0–2

Rafael Jodar vs Taylor Fritz

Hard0-2
0%1st set → match win % (H2H)100%
0%Deciding set win % (H2H)0%
64%1st serve points won %82%
29%Return points won %40%

Set Handicap: Cerundolo gets the start

Turning to the set handicap market, Lajal is listed at -1.5 sets at 3.00, while Cerundolo with a +1.5 set start is posted at 1.35. While Lajal has been getting results, Cerundolo's top-52 ranking and solid 39-48 career record mean he has the pedigree to keep sets tight and push deep into this opening round contest. If you are checking the board for smart tennis tips, taking Cerundolo to cover the handicap start rates a real chance.

Sets
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Rafael Jodar +1.5$1.40Our tipTaylor Fritz -1.5$2.80
Solid tickOur tip: Juan Manuel Cerundolo +1.5. Cerundolo holds a superior ranking of 52 and has the tour quality to snatch at least one set.

Tipped at $1.35 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Rafael Jodarlast 5

−1.5 cover rate60%3/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins60%3/5

Taylor Fritzlast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate100%5/5
Straight-sets wins40%2/5
60%−1.5 cover % (form)40%
H2H −1.5 cover (Rafael Jodar)0%0/2

Total Games: Expecting a tight battle

The total games line is set at 22.5 games, with Over priced at 1.80 and Under sitting at 2.00. Lajal's recent victories have featured high game totals, including tight multi-set contests on Thu, 13 Aug and Fri, 14 Aug. Combined with Cerundolo's ability to stay competitive against quality opponents, pushing past 22.5 total games gets a big tick for value.

Games
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipOver 20.5$2.05Under 20.5$1.75
Solid tickOur tip: Over 22.5. Lajal's recent matches have been long, grinding battles that favour a higher game count.

Tipped at $1.80 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 20.5.

Rafael Jodar matches (n=5)avg 20vs 20.5
1638
Taylor Fritz matches (n=5)avg 34vs 20.5
1638
H2H meetings (n=2)avg 23vs 20.5
1638

Hit rate vs 20.5

Rafael Jodarn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
Taylor Fritzn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
H2Hn=2
Over 100%Under 0%
11Avg games won (form)18.8