A huge ATP first-round clash is locked in for Wednesday, 30 September at 1:00 pm AEST as world No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime meets Karen Khachanov. Auger-Aliassime holds the clear ladder advantage with 4,740 ranking points, but Khachanov comes in with momentum after claiming a straight-sets victory in his last outing on 1 September.

If you are looking for fresh tennis predictions, the numbers jump off the page ahead of this opening-round contest. Both players arrive with plenty to prove, making this a classic high-energy showdown to kick off the tournament.

Head to Head: Match-Winner Breakdown

The numbers say Felix Auger-Aliassime holds the ranking edge as the No. 4 player on the ATP ladder, compared to Khachanov at No. 39. Auger-Aliassime enters as the head-to-head market favourite at 1.65, while Khachanov sits at 2.25.

However, recent form gives Khachanov a genuine boost. Khachanov is coming off a last-start win on 1 September over Roman Andres Burruchaga. He holds a 54% YTD win rate (21-18) and a 58% career win percentage across 335 career victories.

Auger-Aliassime is coming off a last-start loss to Marco Trungelliti on 1 September and has dropped four of his last five overall outings. This marks the first time these two have met on court, with their head-to-head record sitting dead even at 0-0 across all surfaces. Auger-Aliassime's overall class gives him the edge, but Khachanov's recent win makes him a dangerous underdog.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 12:15 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Karen Khachanov2.25Our tipFelix Auger-Aliassime1.65
Solid tickOur tip: Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime holds the superior ranking at No. 4 and has the top-tier quality to secure the opening-round win.

Tipped at $1.65 (11:49 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

0–0

Alexander Blockx vs Marco Trungelliti

100%1st set → match win % (form)100%
0%Deciding set win % (form)100%

Set Handicap Analysis

In the set line market, the line is set at 1.5 sets. Karen Khachanov with a +1.5 set headstart gets a big tick at 1.45, while Felix Auger-Aliassime laying -1.5 sets is priced at 2.60.

Given Khachanov grabbed a win in his most recent start on 1 September while Auger-Aliassime has suffered four defeats in his last five starts overall, Khachanov taking at least one set rates a real chance.

SetsOdds correct as at 12:15 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipKaren Khachanov +1.51.50Felix Auger-Aliassime -1.52.45
Solid tickOur tip: Karen Khachanov +1.5. Khachanov comes off a strong last-start win on 1 September and gets a 1.5 set cushion against an opponent with four losses in his last five starts.

Tipped at $1.45 (11:49 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Alexander Blockxlast 4

−1.5 cover rate50%2/4
+1.5 cover rate75%3/4
Straight-sets wins50%2/4

Marco Trungellitilast 3

−1.5 cover rate33%1/3
+1.5 cover rate67%2/3
Straight-sets wins33%1/3
50%−1.5 cover % (form)33%

Total Games Angle

The total market line is set at 23.5 games. Under 23.5 games sits at 1.80, with Over 23.5 games available at 2.00.

With no past head-to-head matches between the pair to reference, recent form trends point toward a fast-paced battle. Under 23.5 games offers solid value at 1.80 if either player takes control early.

GamesOdds correct as at 12:15 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Over 23.52.00Our tipUnder 23.51.80
Light tickOur tip: Under 23.5. The stats lean toward a decisive match, making Under 23.5 total games an attractive option.

Tipped at $1.80 (11:49 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 23.5.

Alexander Blockx matches (n=4)avg 24.8vs 23.5
1935
Marco Trungelliti matches (n=3)avg 30.7vs 23.5
1935

Hit rate vs 23.5

Alexander Blockxn=4
Over 50%Under 50%
Marco Trungellitin=3
Over 67%Under 33%
13.3Avg games won (form)14.3