Jan-Lennard Struff takes on Alejandro Tabilo in the ATP Second Round on Sunday, 16 August, 7:35 am AEST. The numbers tell the story: Tabilo sits 17 places higher on the ladder — world number 29 versus Struff's 43 — and brings the better season record into this one.
Tabilo is 22-20 year to date for a 52 per cent strike rate; Struff sits at 13-15 and 46 per cent. The Chilean has racked up 91 career wins against 92 losses; the German has posted 250-280 across his journey. Neither player has faced the other before — the head-to-head ledger reads 0-0 across all surfaces — so recent form and current ranking carry extra weight.
Who will win?
Struff is coming off a win — he beat Roman Andres Burruchaga on Friday, 14 August in straight sets. That result snapped a two-match losing run. His last five overall reads two wins, three losses, with both victories at home. Away from home in that stretch he fell to Alex Michelsen, Mariano Navone and Jannik Sinner.
Tabilo's most recent outing was a loss — he went down on Thursday, 6 August in three sets. Before that defeat he had strung together three consecutive wins, including a home victory over Ben Shelton on 1 August. His last-five ledger shows three wins and one loss — a sharper recent record than his opponent's.
The head-to-head market has Tabilo at the shorter quote and Struff as the outsider. The Chilean's higher ranking, better season win percentage and stronger last-five form all align with that pricing. Struff's two home wins in his last five offer a glimmer, but the overall picture favours the visitor.
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Head-to-head context
0–0
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alejandro Tabilo
Set Handicap
The Set Handicap line is set at 1.5 sets. Struff gets a 1.5-set start; Tabilo lays the same margin. Three of Struff's last five matches went the distance — his win over Alexander Shevchenko and his losses to Alex Michelsen and Jannik Sinner all required a deciding set. That suggests tight contests when he's competitive.
Tabilo's recent results show a mix: his loss on 6 August went three sets, but his wins over Ben Shelton and Tallon Griekspoor also pushed to three. With no previous meetings to lean on, the 1.5-set line rates a real chance of landing either side — Struff's home resilience against Tabilo's form edge makes this one a coin flip.
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Total Games
The Total Games line sits at 22.5. Struff's recent matches have delivered high game counts when competitive: his three-set loss to Sinner produced 27 games, and his win over Shevchenko tallied 26. His straight-set loss to Michelsen came in at just 20 games, showing variance when he's outclassed.
Tabilo's three-set wins over Shelton and Griekspoor posted 25 and 27 games respectively. His straight-set win over Terence Atmane delivered 19 games. The trend in both players' last five leans toward matches that push deep when the scoreline is close. With Struff at home and Tabilo the higher-ranked player, a competitive contest looks likely — and that profile pushes the game count higher. For our tennis tips, the over on 22.5 games gets a big tick.
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Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 23.5.
Hit rate vs 23.5