Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in First Round ATP action on Friday 2 October at 1:00 pm AEST, and the numbers tell a clear story. World No.6 Medvedev sits 62 rungs above his Spanish opponent on the ladder and brings two wins from his last five starts into the contest. Carreno Busta, ranked 68th, has dropped three straight matches and rates the underdog here.
The Russian is coming off a straight-sets victory on Thursday 3 September, defeating his opponent 6-6-7–1-3-5. That followed another win by the same scoreline on Monday 31 August. Two wins in the last five gives Medvedev momentum, though losses to Martin Damm on Wednesday 26 August (5-3–7-6) and another tight defeat on Thursday 6 August show he's not invincible in recent form.
Carreno Busta's last start on Monday 31 August ended in a four-set loss to Jiri Lehecka, going down 1-6-6-2–6-7-4-6. That made it three defeats on the trot, with earlier losses to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (4-0–6-3 on Monday 24 August) and Valentin Royer (6-5-2–1-7-6 on Wednesday 5 August). The Spaniard has no wins in his last five outings and comes in searching for form.
Who will win?
Medvedev rates a real chance to take this one. The ladder gap — 6th versus 68th — jumps off the page, and a 70 per cent career win rate (458-196) gives the Russian serious pedigree. Season form shows 38 wins against 16 losses in 2024, with two titles already banked. Carreno Busta's season record sits at 0-0, a stark contrast that underlines the gulf in recent competitive output.
Head-to-head history between these two is blank — they've never met on tour — so form and ranking carry the day. Medvedev's two wins in his last five starts, both at home, give him the edge over an opponent who has lost every recent outing. The market agrees: Medvedev opens as the clear favourite, with the Spaniard paying four times the price.
The Russian's 24 career titles dwarf Carreno Busta's zero for the season, and the ranking numbers say everything you need to know about where these players sit right now. For those chasing tennis tips, the case for the favourite is built on concrete evidence from the ladder and recent results.
Tipped at $1.25 (1:15 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Set Handicap
The Set Handicap has Medvedev laying 1.5 sets, meaning he needs to win in straight sets for the line bet to salute. His last two wins both came without dropping a set, and the form split — two wins in five for the Russian, zero wins in three for the Spaniard — suggests the favourite can cover the spread.
Carreno Busta's three recent losses include a four-setter and two three-set defeats, so he's shown the ability to pinch a set even in losing efforts. That's the risk here for Medvedev backers on the line. But given the ranking gap and the Spaniard's current run of outs, the Russian rates a big tick to get the job done in straight sets.
Tipped at $1.75 (1:15 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Daniil Medvedevlast 5
Total Games
The Total Games line is set at 21.5, and with no head-to-head history to lean on, we're reading the recent form for clues. Medvedev's last two wins both produced tight scorelines that suggest competitive games counts, even in straight-set outcomes. Carreno Busta's defeats have included four-set marathons and three-set battles, so the potential for a longer match is there.
If the Russian sweeps in two sets, the under looms as the play. If the Spaniard can force a third set, the over becomes live. The market has the under at shorter odds, reflecting the expectation that Medvedev controls this one early and finishes efficiently.
Tipped at $1.85 (1:15 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 21.5.
Hit rate vs 21.5