A cracking ATP Second Round showdown is locked in for Thu, 3 Sept at 4:00 am AEST as world No. 9 Ben Shelton faces off against Poland's Hubert Hurkacz.

The number that jumps off the page right away is Shelton's lethal 34-13 season record. Boasting a 72% win rate and four titles already this year, the American left-hander is putting together a massive campaign. For punters scanning the latest tennis predictions, that sort of form gives him a huge edge heading into this clash.

Head to Head: Shelton's Form Advantage

The head-to-head history sits at 0-0 between these two, meaning this second-round clash will be their very first meeting on tour. That places the spotlight firmly on current season form.

Shelton is coming off a hard-fought win over Tallon Griekspoor on 1 Sept, taking four victories from his last five overall outings. With 145 career wins under his belt, the ninth-ranked star gets a big tick on the head-to-head board.

Hurkacz also comes into this off a win, having defeated Damir Dzumhur on 1 Sept. However, the right-hander has logged a 17-16 YTD record (52% win rate) across 2026. While Hurkacz carries 244 career victories and nine total career titles, the numbers say Shelton's current momentum makes him the clear favourite to advance.

Head to Head
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipAlexander Bublik$2.40Jakub Mensik$1.58
Big tickOur tip: Ben Shelton. Shelton holds a dominant 34-13 record this season with four titles and has won four of his past five matches overall.

Tipped at $1.40 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

1–2

Alexander Bublik vs Jakub Mensik

Clay0-1
Grass1-0
Indoor0-1
0%1st set → match win % (H2H)67%
100%Deciding set win % (H2H)0%
80%1st serve points won %76%
33%Return points won %33%

Set Handicap: Looking at the -2.5 Line

The set handicap board sees Shelton laying -2.5 sets, while Hurkacz gets a +2.5 set buffer.

Covering a complete set sweep at -2.5 sets is a steep ask against an experienced campaigner like Hurkacz, who holds a career 244-169 record. Given Shelton needed five tight sets to get past Griekspoor in his most recent outing, Hurkacz +2.5 sets rates a real chance to cover.

Sets
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Alexander Bublik +1.5$1.55Our tipJakub Mensik -1.5$2.35
Solid tickOur tip: Hubert Hurkacz +2.5. Hurkacz has 244 career wins and enough quality to grab at least one set against Shelton, who went five sets last start.

Tipped at $1.35 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Alexander Bubliklast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate60%3/5
Straight-sets wins20%1/5

Jakub Mensiklast 5

−1.5 cover rate20%1/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins0%0/5
40%−1.5 cover % (form)20%
H2H −1.5 cover (Alexander Bublik)0%0/3

Total Games: Over 40.5 in Focus

The total market is set at 40.5 games for this match.

Both players demonstrated plenty of battle-hardness in their opening-round victories on 1 Sept. Shelton went the distance in a five-set marathon, while Hurkacz needed four sets to get past Dzumhur. With both competitors showing a knack for tight sets, pushing past 40.5 games looks well within reach.

Games
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipOver 22.5$1.80Under 22.5$2.00
Solid tickOur tip: Over 40.5. Both players are coming off multi-set opening matches on 1 Sept, suggesting this contest can comfortably pass the 40.5 games mark.

Tipped at $1.85 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.

Alexander Bublik matches (n=5)avg 29vs 22.5
1837
Jakub Mensik matches (n=5)avg 33vs 22.5
1837
H2H meetings (n=3)avg 29.3vs 22.5
1837

Hit rate vs 22.5

Alexander Bublikn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
Jakub Mensikn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
H2Hn=3
Over 33%Under 67%
15Avg games won (form)16.2