ATP action hits the Second Round on Mon, 17 Aug, 7:05 am AEST as Andrey Rublev takes on Pablo Carreno Busta. If you are chasing expert tennis tips for this matchup, the numbers say we have a fascinating contest between current world No. 18 Rublev and world No. 27 Carreno Busta. Both players head into this contest looking to bounce back after dropping their last starts on Wed, 5 Aug.

Who Takes Out The Match?

Rublev enters as the favourite at 1.45 on the head-to-head board, while Carreno Busta sits as the 2.78 outsider. The number that jumps off the page straight away is Rublev's 26-15 season record and 19 career titles, giving him a solid edge in match play this year. Across his career, the Russian has built a 395-224 record with one title already locked in for the year.

Looking at recent results, Rublev is coming off a loss on Wed, 5 Aug against Juncheng Shang, following earlier July wins over Timofey Skatov and Luciano Darderi. Carreno Busta also dropped his most recent start on Wed, 5 Aug against Valentin Royer. With a 0-0 head-to-head record between the pair, Rublev's superior season match volume gives him a big tick.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 5:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipAndrey Rublev1.43Pablo Carreno Busta2.85
Solid tickOur tip: Andrey Rublev. Rublev holds a solid 26-15 season record and brings 19 career titles into this matchup.

Tipped at $1.45 (6:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

0–0

Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Checking The Set Handicap

On the set handicap board, Rublev lays -1.5 sets at 2.20, with Carreno Busta receiving +1.5 sets at 1.60. Given that both players were pushed in extended set scorelines in their last outings, Carreno Busta snagging a set rates a real chance.

Taking the start with Carreno Busta +1.5 sets presents a logical angle for those looking beyond the straight head-to-head price.

SetsOdds correct as at 5:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Andrey Rublev -1.52.15Our tipPablo Carreno Busta +1.51.65
Solid tickOur tip: Pablo Carreno Busta +1.5. Carreno Busta receiving +1.5 sets provides a good line option if he pushes Rublev in a tight contest.

Tipped at $1.60 (6:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Andrey Rublevlast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate100%5/5
Straight-sets wins40%2/5

Total Games Breakdown

The total games line is set at 22.5 games, with Over 22.5 priced at 1.85 and Under 22.5 at 1.95.

Rublev's recent outing against Shang went deep into high game counts, and with both players searching for momentum early in this match, going Over 22.5 games rates as an appealing play.

GamesOdds correct as at 5:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipOver 22.51.85Under 22.51.95
Solid tickOur tip: Over 22.5. Both players showed tendency for long sets in their last starts on Wed, 5 Aug, supporting a higher game count.

Tipped at $1.85 (6:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.

Andrey Rublev matches (n=5)avg 25.2vs 22.5
1830

Hit rate vs 22.5

Andrey Rublevn=5
Over 60%Under 40%