First-round ATP action arrives on Wednesday, 2 Sept at 10:00 am AEST as world rank 7 Alex de Minaur steps onto the court to battle Italian left-hander Andrea Guerrieri. The stats jump off the page right away in this matchup: de Minaur enters boasting 11 career titles, 337 career victories, and a strong 32-17 record this season alone. For punters following our latest tennis betting tips, the Australian star brings a massive advantage in experience and top-tier match play into this opening clash.
Head To Head: Aussie Star Holds A Commanding Edge
When weighing up these two competitors, the numbers say de Minaur holds a huge upper hand. The Australian sits seventh in the world rankings with 3,560 ranking points, having previously reached a career-best ranking of 5. His 65% win percentage this season reflects steady consistency at the highest level, highlighted by one title already this year. On the flip side, Guerrieri enters holding his career-best ranking of 187 with a 0-0 main tour record on the board.
Looking closely at recent outings, de Minaur's most recent result was a hard-fought three-set loss against Cameron Norrie on Friday, 7 Aug, where he fell 7-6 1-5 7-6 in a battle of fine margins. Prior to that outing, the Aussie picked up a win on Wednesday, 5 Aug, following a loss to Brandon Nakashima on Saturday, 1 Aug and a four-set victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas on Thursday, 30 July (6 3 6-4 6 3). Across his last two matches listed on home soil, de Minaur logged one win over Tsitsipas and one loss to Nakashima.
With no past head-to-head encounters between Guerrieri and de Minaur across any surface, this initial meeting will test how the Italian left-hander copes with de Minaur's renowned counter-punching speed. The head-to-head market reflects that massive gulf, pricing de Minaur as the favourite at 1.03 while Guerrieri is out at 12.60 to deliver an upset win.
Tipped at $1.03 (5:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
0–0
Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex de Minaur
Set Line: Can De Minaur Sweep In Straight Sets?
The line market presents a 2.5 sets handicap for this opening-round contest. Guerrieri gets a +2.5 set advantage at odds of 2.55, while de Minaur is tasked with covering -2.5 sets at 1.50. That means a selection on the Australian requires him to secure a clean 3-0 set victory.
Given de Minaur's track record of dispatching lower-ranked opponents and his 337 career victories, a direct sweep rates a real chance. A big tick for de Minaur is his ability to maintain relentless pressure on serve and return, making it tough for an opponent ranked 187 to claim a set. Pushing for de Minaur at -2.5 sets at 1.50 looks like a logical play.
Tipped at $1.50 (5:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Set handicap (±1.5) form
−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.
Alex de Minaurlast 5
Total Games Breakdown: Under 28.5 Line Under The Lens
The totals line for total match games is set at 28.5 games, with both Over and Under options sitting at 1.90. In a best-of-five set match format, 28.5 games requires a relatively swift victory to hit the Under — for example, a 6-4 6-3 6-3 scoreline totals 28 games.
With de Minaur showing a strong 65% win rate across 49 matches this season, the Australian will be eager to dictate tempo early and limit court time in the opening round. If de Minaur asserts his control from the opening game, total match games rates a real chance to stay below the 28.5 threshold.
Tipped at $1.90 (5:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Match total games
Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 28.5.
Hit rate vs 28.5