Alexander Bublik and Adrian Mannarino square off in an intriguing ATP second-round clash set for Thursday, 3 September at 4:00 am AEST. Bublik's 27-17 YTD record jumps off the page when looking at season consistency, boasting a 61% win percentage against Mannarino's 13-23 campaign. Punters hunting for reliable tennis betting tips will find plenty to chew on ahead of this matchup.

Both competitors enter this second-round match on the back of opening-round victories. Bublik claimed his last start on Monday, 31 August against Jeff Wolf, while Mannarino pulled off a victory on Tuesday, 1 September over Thiago Agustin Tirante. With a spot in the third round on the line, the stats point toward a high-tempo contest.

Who Will Win?

The ranking comparison gives Bublik a big tick entering this clash. The Kazakhstan right-hander sits at current rank 16 with a career record of 216-189 and nine titles under his belt. Mannarino, the left-handed Frenchman, holds current rank 67 with a 329-381 career mark and five career titles. Bublik's recent trajectory is far sharper, winning four of his past five overall matches, including victories over Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Alex Molcan prior to his first-round result.

Mannarino has struggled for momentum throughout 2026, registering a 36% win rate across 36 matches. His last five overall starts include three defeats against Lorenzo Sonego, Alex Michelsen, and an earlier opponent before his recent win against Tirante. Head-to-head history between these two is split dead even at 1-1 on hard courts, with Mannarino winning their September 2025 clash and Bublik taking their January 2020 encounter. Overall season form makes Bublik the head-to-head favourite on the board.

Head to Head
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipJenson Brooksby$1.78Nikoloz Basilashvili$2.05
Big tickOur tip: Alexander Bublik. Bublik holds a 27-17 YTD record and rank 16 standing, backed by four wins from his last five overall outings.

Tipped at $1.27 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

1–2

Jenson Brooksby vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

Hard1-2
33%1st set → match win % (H2H)0%
0%Deciding set win % (H2H)100%
69%1st serve points won %65%
44%Return points won %43%

Sets Line Analysis

The set handicap is set at -1.5 sets for Bublik (+1.5 sets for Mannarino). Bublik's recent form of four wins in his past five starts gives him a strong edge to clear the handicap in sets. Mannarino's 13-23 season tally indicates frequent stumbles against top opponents, making the favourite's set handicap look very achievable.

Sets
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipJenson Brooksby -1.5$2.60Nikoloz Basilashvili +1.5$1.45
Solid tickOur tip: Alexander Bublik -1.5. Bublik's 61% YTD win percentage contrasts sharply with Mannarino's 36%, giving the Kazakhstan native a strong edge to cover the set handicap.

Tipped at $1.60 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Jenson Brooksbylast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins40%2/5

Nikoloz Basilashvililast 2

−1.5 cover rate100%2/2
+1.5 cover rate100%2/2
Straight-sets wins100%2/2
40%−1.5 cover % (form)100%
H2H −1.5 cover (Jenson Brooksby)33%1/3

Total Games Breakdown

The games total line is posted at 36.5 games. Both players showed plenty of fight in their opening-round victories, with Bublik winning a long battle against Jeff Wolf and Mannarino going deep in sets against Thiago Agustin Tirante. Their head-to-head record sits at 1-1, indicating that matchups between them tend to be tightly contested.

The numbers say this match rates a real chance of going deep into sets. With both men coming off multi-set first-round wins, taking the over on 36.5 games presents an appealing angle.

Games
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.
Our tipOver 22.5$1.95Under 22.5$1.85
Solid tickOur tip: Over 36.5. Both players went deep in sets during their opening round wins and share a 1-1 head-to-head record, pointing towards a long battle.

Tipped at $1.85 · . Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.

Jenson Brooksby matches (n=5)avg 28.6vs 22.5
1833
Nikoloz Basilashvili matches (n=2)avg 22.5vs 22.5
1833
H2H meetings (n=3)avg 27.3vs 22.5
1833

Hit rate vs 22.5

Jenson Brooksbyn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
Nikoloz Basilashvilin=2
Over 50%Under 50%
H2Hn=3
Over 67%Under 33%
15.4Avg games won (form)13