First-round ATP action hits the court on Wed, 30 Sept, 1:30 pm AEST as Alejandro Tabilo takes on Tommy Paul. If you are chasing expert tennis tips, the numbers jump off the page in this matchup. World No. 16 Tommy Paul brings a impressive 39-17 season record into this contest, boasting a 70% win rate this year against Tabilo's 51% win percentage (25-24).

Who Will Win?

Tommy Paul holds the clear matchup edge in this contest. The numbers say Paul has dominated their previous encounters, holding a perfect 2-0 head-to-head record with victories over Tabilo in June and October 2024.

Both players arrive coming off a win in their most recent outings. Tabilo claimed a victory on Tue, 1 Sept against Yannick Hanfmann and has won four of his last five overall matches. Paul secured his win on Mon, 31 Aug. In head-to-head market moves, Tommy Paul has 2.25→1.36 (firmed) into strong favouritism, while Alejandro Tabilo has 1.65→3.18 (drifted).

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 1:15 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Alejandro Tabilo3.18Our tipTommy Paul1.36
Big tickOur tip: Tommy Paul. Paul holds a 2-0 head-to-head record over Tabilo and boasts a strong 70% win rate this season.

Tipped at $1.36 (11:49 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

0–2

Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy Paul

Hard0-1
Grass0-1
0%1st set → match win % (H2H)100%
0%Deciding set win % (H2H)100%
71%1st serve points won %78%
28%Return points won %39%

Set Handicap Breakdown

The set handicap is set at 1.5 sets. Tabilo has shown plenty of fight recently, winning four of his past five outings, which gives him a big tick to push this contest deep.

In set handicap market moves, Alejandro Tabilo has 2.6→1.75 (firmed) while Tommy Paul has 1.45→2 (drifted). Tabilo +1.5 sets rates a real chance to deliver a tight battle.

SetsOdds correct as at 1:15 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipAlejandro Tabilo +1.51.75Tommy Paul -1.52.00
Solid tickOur tip: Alejandro Tabilo +1.5. Tabilo has won four of his past five matches overall and rates a real chance to snatch at least one set.

Tipped at $1.75 (11:49 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Alejandro Tabilolast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate60%3/5
Straight-sets wins0%0/5

Tommy Paullast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins0%0/5
40%−1.5 cover % (form)40%
H2H −1.5 cover (Alejandro Tabilo)0%0/2

Total Games Angle

The total games line sits at 22.5 games. In past meetings, both battles between these two went the distance, suggesting a lengthy affair could be on the cards.

Market moves show over 22.5 games has 1.95→1.9 (firmed) while under 22.5 games has 1.85→1.9 (drifted).

GamesOdds correct as at 1:15 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipOver 22.51.90Under 22.51.90
Solid tickOur tip: Over 22.5. Previous head-to-head clashes between these two have gone three sets, pointing towards a high game count.

Tipped at $1.90 (11:49 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 22.5.

Alejandro Tabilo matches (n=5)avg 32vs 22.5
1840
Tommy Paul matches (n=5)avg 36.2vs 22.5
1840
H2H meetings (n=2)avg 26.5vs 22.5
1840

Hit rate vs 22.5

Alejandro Tabilon=5
Over 80%Under 20%
Tommy Pauln=5
Over 100%Under 0%
H2Hn=2
Over 50%Under 50%
15.4Avg games won (form)19.6