By UpYaGo Trading Desk · UpYaGo trading analysts · Published Tue, 28 July, 9:46 am AEST
How much is home ground really worth in the AFL? We crunched every game since 2020 — travel, venue familiarity and crowd effects, quantified.
Home-ground advantage is real — but it's not what most punters think it is.
Same-city games show almost no home edge at all. The advantage is travel fatigue and venue familiarity, not the crowd.
When two Melbourne sides meet at the MCG, treat home/away labels as noise. When a Perth side hosts a travelling east-coast team, the real edge is bigger than most lines imply.
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