The biggest stage in footy is set as minor premiers Fremantle clash with the Brisbane Lions at the M.C.G. on Sat, 26 Sept, 2:30 pm AEST. It is the ultimate contest to cap off the 2026 season.

Both teams enter the big dance coming off impressive preliminary final wins. If you are locking in your afl tipping selections, the numbers jump off the page for this monster clash.

Who Will Win?

Fremantle finished on top of the ladder with 19 wins, averaging 97.3 points per game across the season. Their last start was a solid 12-point win against Sydney Swans (83–71) on Fri, 18 Sept.

Brisbane Lions finished third on the ladder with 16 wins and average a massive 110.1 points per game overall this year. The Lions are also coming off a win, taking down Hawthorn 131–122 by 9 points on Sat, 19 Sept.

In their only head-to-head encounter this season back in May 2026, Fremantle came away victorious 103–78 against Brisbane. On the head-to-head board, Fremantle have firmed 2.25→2.2 (firmed), while Brisbane Lions have drifted 1.65→1.68 (drifted).

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 5:12 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Fremantle2.20Our tipBrisbane Lions1.68
Solid tickOur tip: Brisbane Lions. Brisbane's season scoring average of 110.1 points per game gives them a potent attacking edge on the big stage.

Tipped at $1.68 (6:12 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

97.3Season avg points for110.1
73.7Season avg points against92.6
83%Season win rate70%
87.4Last 5 avg points for123.4
60%Last-five win rate80%

Line Analysis

The line sits at 6.5 points. Fremantle carry the start as home team, with their line price moving 1.92→1.9 (firmed). Brisbane Lions are laying the start, drifting 1.87→1.9 (drifted).

The Lions have shown enormous firepower over their last five overall matches, averaging 123.4 points for and recording an average winning margin of 41.8 points in their victories. That offensive capacity gives them a big tick to cover the start.

LineOdds correct as at 5:12 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Fremantle +6.51.90Our tipBrisbane Lions -6.51.90
Solid tickOur tip: Brisbane Lions -6.5. The Lions average a 41.8-point winning margin across victories in their last five overall games, backing them to clear the start.

Tipped at $1.90 (6:12 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Fremantle+6.5last 5

Cover rate60%3/5
Avg margin (-3.8)avg -3.8vs -6.5
-1127

Brisbane Lions-6.5last 5

Cover rate80%4/5
60%Cover % (form)80%
H2H cover (Fremantle +6.5)100%1/1

Total Points Breakdown

The total points line is set at 176.5 points. The numbers say we could be in for a high-scoring spectacle.

Brisbane Lions' last five overall matches have seen incredible scoring, averaging 123.4 points for and 100.6 points against. Combined with Fremantle's last five overall average of 87.4 points for, the over rates a real chance.

Total PointsOdds correct as at 5:12 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipOver 190.51.90Under 190.51.90
Big tickOur tip: Over 176.5. Brisbane matches have seen massive scoring lately, averaging over 224 combined points across their past five games.

Tipped at $1.35 (10:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total points

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 190.5.

Fremantle games (n=5)avg 178.6vs 190.5
155247
Brisbane Lions games (n=5)avg 224vs 190.5
155247
H2H meetings (n=1)avg 181vs 190.5
155247

Hit rate vs 190.5

Fremantlen=5
Over 60%Under 40%
Brisbane Lionsn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
H2Hn=1
Over 0%Under 100%
87.4Avg points for (form)123.4

Popular Same Game Multi

For those looking at multi combinations, popular options on the board include Charlie Cameron to score a goal in the Match, Lachie Neale to get 25+ disposals & Dayne Zorko to get 20+ disposals at 2.05.

Another featured combo is Brisbane to win & Charlie Cameron to score 4+ goals in the Match at 7.