Kudermetova v Tjen: World No.91 rates a real chance — our tips

Polina Kudermetova takes on Janice Tjen in a first-round WTA clash on Tuesday, 27 October at 5:00 pm AEDT. The world No.91 comes in with a three-match winning streak; the No.47-ranked Indonesian carries a 19–27 season record but sits 44 ranking spots higher. It's the first meeting between the pair, so recent form and seasonal trends tell the story.

Who will win?

Tjen owns the clear ranking advantage — 47th to Kudermetova's 91st — and a career win percentage of 48 per cent against the Uzbek's 38. The Indonesian has posted 19 wins this season; Kudermetova has managed just six. But the numbers that jump off the page are the recent results: Kudermetova is coming off a straight-sets win over Clara Tauson and has won three of her last four, while Tjen arrives on the back of a loss to Ashlyn Krueger and carries two defeats in her past three outings.

Kudermetova's last-five form reads W–W–L–W; Tjen's is L–L–W–W–L. The Uzbek's three wins in that stretch came in deciding sets or tight battles — 6–4 6–4 against Tauson, a three-setter against Ma YeXin, and a marathon against Cristina Bucsa. Tjen's two wins in her last five both came at home venues, but her away record in that span shows consecutive losses. The head-to-head ledger is blank, so those contrasting trajectories carry extra weight.

The bookmaker has Tjen at $1.55 and Kudermetova at $2.35. The favourite tag reflects ranking and season wins, but Kudermetova's current run rates a real chance of an upset.

Set Handicap: can Kudermetova cover the start?

The Set Handicap is Kudermetova +1.5 sets at $1.53, Tjen –1.5 at $2.38. That line asks whether the underdog can keep it to a single-set margin or push to three. Kudermetova's last four matches have all gone the distance or stayed tight — her win over Tauson was straight sets but close games, and her previous two wins both needed three. Tjen's recent losses have also been competitive: the defeat to Krueger was a three-setter, and the one before that went to a deciding set as well.

Neither player has shown a pattern of blowing opponents away. Kudermetova's three-match streak suggests she's finding rhythm, and every one of those wins came in matches that stayed live deep. Tjen's 19–27 season record includes plenty of competitive losses. The +1.5 start for the Uzbek looks a big tick when you weigh the tight margins in both players' recent form and the absence of any head-to-head history to suggest a mismatch.

Total Games: does the trend point Over or Under?

The Total Games line sits at 21.5 — Over $1.83, Under $1.90. That number expects a match in the 22-game range, roughly a tight two-setter or a competitive three. Kudermetova's last three wins all produced high game counts: the Tauson match went 20 games (6–4 6–4), the Ma clash ran 23 games across three sets, and the Bucsa marathon clocked 27 games. Tjen's recent three-setters against Krueger and the prior loss also cleared 20 games comfortably.

Both players are right-handers with season win percentages under 50, which historically correlates with longer, grindier matches. The absence of any dominant serving or returning edge in the pack stats — and the recent evidence of tight sets on both sides — suggests this one could easily run deep. The numbers say Over 21.5 games rates a real chance, especially given Kudermetova's knack for three-set battles and Tjen's competitive losses. Our tennis betting tips lean toward the higher game count when the form lines up like this.