Daniil Medvedev takes on Jan-Lennard Struff in a massive second-round ATP clash this Saturday, 3 Oct at 7:00 pm AEST. Medvedev jumps off the page with a current world rank of 6 compared to Struff at 59, and the numbers say he holds a commanding 8-2 record in past head-to-head meetings.

If you are hunting for sharp tennis predictions ahead of Saturday night's action, the statistics point to a massive matchup where past history and recent form play a major role.

Who Will Win?

Medvedev enters coming off a win against Pablo Carreno Busta on Friday, 2 Oct, extending a strong run where he has won three of his last five matches overall. His 39-16 season record underlines why he sits comfortably inside the world's top ten.

Struff is also coming off a last-start win after defeating Thiago Agustin Tirante on Wednesday, 30 Sept, bringing his YTD record to 15-17. However, the overall head-to-head history gives a big tick to Medvedev, who has won eight of their ten meetings across all surfaces, including two from two on hard courts and three from three on indoor hard courts.

In the head-to-head market, Medvedev is installed as the clear favourite at 1.15, while Struff sits at 5.50.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 3:17 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipDaniil Medvedev1.15Jan-Lennard Struff5.50
Big tickOur tip: Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev commands an 8-2 head-to-head record over Struff and boasts a strong 39-16 record this season.

Tipped at $1.15 (12:16 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

8–2

Daniil Medvedev vs Jan-Lennard Struff

Hard2-0
Clay1-0
Grass2-2
Indoor3-0
100%1st set → match win % (H2H)100%
100%Deciding set win % (H2H)0%
77%1st serve points won %74%
38%Return points won %30%

Set Handicap Edge

With the set handicap line set at -1.5 sets, Medvedev at 1.55 rates a real chance to cover and close this out in straight sets. The rank 6 star boasts 24 career titles and a 71% win percentage this season, showing his ability to dominant opponents early.

Struff (+1.5 sets at 2.35) did manage a victory over Medvedev in July 2026, but Medvedev's career record of 459-196 compared to Struff's 252-282 suggests the favourite has the edge required to clear the line.

SetsOdds correct as at 3:17 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipDaniil Medvedev -1.51.55Jan-Lennard Struff +1.52.35
Solid tickOur tip: Daniil Medvedev -1.5. With Medvedev holding a 71% win rate this year and coming off a last-start win, a straight-sets victory rates a real chance.

Tipped at $1.55 (12:16 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Set handicap (±1.5) form

−1.5 cover = won by two or more sets. Charts use recent completed scorelines.

Daniil Medvedevlast 5

−1.5 cover rate80%4/5
+1.5 cover rate100%5/5
Straight-sets wins80%4/5

Jan-Lennard Strufflast 5

−1.5 cover rate40%2/5
+1.5 cover rate80%4/5
Straight-sets wins40%2/5
80%−1.5 cover % (form)40%
H2H −1.5 cover (Daniil Medvedev)80%4/5

Total Games Line

The total games line is set at 21.5 games, with both Over and Under priced at 1.90. Should Medvedev control the pace and secure a straight-sets victory, the total match games could easily remain Under the line.

Medvedev's strong service numbers and solid 70% career win rate mean he rarely lets early leads slip, giving the Under 21.5 games market serious appeal.

GamesOdds correct as at 3:17 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Over 21.51.95Our tipUnder 21.51.85
Solid tickOur tip: Under 21.5. If Medvedev dictates terms in two sets, the match total is well placed to finish Under 21.5 games.

Tipped at $1.90 (12:16 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Match total games

Average games from recent scorelines · marker shows live line 21.5.

Daniil Medvedev matches (n=5)avg 23vs 21.5
1733
Jan-Lennard Struff matches (n=5)avg 29vs 21.5
1733
H2H meetings (n=5)avg 27.4vs 21.5
1733

Hit rate vs 21.5

Daniil Medvedevn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
Jan-Lennard Struffn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
H2Hn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
13.8Avg games won (form)15