The biggest stage in rugby league is set as the Sydney Roosters meet the Newcastle Knights in the NRL Grand Final at Accor Stadium on Sun, 4 Oct, 7:30 pm AEDT.

The stats jump off the page in this decider. The Sydney Roosters finished 4th on the ladder with 16 wins and hold a night kickoff record of 13-0-7. Newcastle Knights claimed 7th spot with 14 victories across the regular season. If you are hunting for key nrl tipping stats ahead of kick-off, the numbers point to a high-intensity showdown between two in-form sides.

Who Will Win?

The Sydney Roosters head into the grand final as head-to-head favourites, with their market price moving 1.45→1.43 (firmed), while Newcastle Knights sit at 2.78→2.85 (drifted). The Roosters are coming off a last-start 36–20 victory over the Dolphins on Friday, 25 September. Across 27 season games, the Tricolours have averaged 26.4 points for per game, backed by a scoring average of 26.8 points over their last five overall outings.

Newcastle Knights enter off the back of three straight wins, most recently posting a 22–14 win against the Penrith Panthers on Sunday, 27 September. The numbers say head-to-head history gives the Roosters an edge, as Sydney won both 2026 regular-season clashes—taking out a 38–24 win in April and a thrilling 23–22 victory in July. Sydney Roosters rate a real chance to maintain that head-to-head edge on the big stage.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 12:14 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipSydney Roosters1.43Newcastle Knights2.85
Big tickOur tip: Sydney Roosters. Sydney Roosters won both head-to-head encounters in 2026 and boast 13 wins from night kickoffs this season.

Tipped at $1.43 (5:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

26.4Season avg points for25.4
20.4Season avg points against23.1
67%Season win rate58%
26.8Last 5 avg points for22
40%Last-five win rate60%

Line Betting Angle

The line market sits at 7.5 points. Sydney Roosters at -7.5 have seen their price shift 1.9→1.85 (firmed), with Newcastle Knights at +7.5 moving 1.9→1.95 (drifted).

Looking at recent scoring samples, the Roosters hold an average winning margin of 26 points across their last five overall games. Newcastle Knights have registered an average winning margin of 6.7 points over their past five starts. With one of their two victories against Newcastle this season coming by 14 points, backing Sydney to cover the spread gets a big tick.

LineOdds correct as at 12:14 pm AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipSydney Roosters -7.51.85Newcastle Knights +7.51.95
Solid tickOur tip: Sydney Roosters -7.5. The Roosters average a 26-point winning margin over their last five overall matches and covered a 14-point margin against Newcastle earlier this season.

Tipped at $1.85 (5:14 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Sydney Roosters-7.5last 5

Cover rate40%2/5
Avg margin (-3)avg -3vs 7.5
-712

Newcastle Knights+7.5last 5

Cover rate60%3/5
40%Cover % (form)60%
H2H cover (Sydney Roosters -7.5)50%1/2

Same Game Multi Options

Same Game Multi options are live for the grand final decider. A featured combo on the board is Roosters to win, Dominic Young to score a try & Mark Nawaqanitawase to score a try at 5.75.

Another popular selection features Mark Nawaqanitawase to score a try & Dominic Young to score a try at 4.2, while Daniel Tupou to score a try & Greg Marzhew to score a try is listed at 4.75.