Four wins from their last five outings jumps off the page for the Toronto Blue Jays as they get set to host the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on Sun, 16 Aug, 5:07 am AEST. Toronto holds a 60-64 record this season, while the Yankees roll into town sitting second in the division with a 68-54 record. Braydon Fisher gets the nod on the mound for the hosts, taking on New York pitcher Cam Schlittler. If you are hunting for the latest mlb picks, this American League contest brings plenty of statistical angles to analyse.

Who Will Win? Blue Jays Catching Fire

The numbers say Toronto are building momentum at the right time. The Blue Jays have won four of their last five overall starts, capped off by a 3-1 victory against the Yankees on 15 Aug. Over that five-game stretch overall, Toronto has averaged 3.2 runs scored and 3.2 runs allowed per game. Their recent run includes victories over Boston (6-4, 5-3, and 2-1) alongside a single 0-7 loss.

The Yankees enter this matchup coming off a loss, having dropped back-to-back games including that 1-3 defeat in Toronto and a 0-1 loss to Seattle. Across their last five overall games, New York has averaged 3.2 runs for and 2.4 against. Head-to-head history shows Toronto taking three of the five meetings between these clubs in 2026, including wins by 3-1, 8-5, and 2-0 scorelines. On the head-to-head board, New York sits as the 1.52 favourite with Toronto paying 2.55.

MarketsOdds correct as at 4:12 am AEST. Odds can change.

Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line Analysis: Value on the Host Spread

The line is set at 1.5 runs, with Toronto at +1.5 (1.9) and New York at -1.5 (1.9). Toronto's average win margin over their last five games is 1.8 runs, showing they win tight contests. On the other hand, the Yankees have an average loss margin of just 1.3 runs across their last five overall matches.

Given Toronto has claimed four wins from five at Rogers Centre, backing the Blue Jays to cover the +1.5 run line gets a big tick.

LineOdds correct as at 4:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Solid tickOur tip: Toronto Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto has won four of its last five overall games, including a 3-1 win over the Yankees last start.

Tipped at $1.90 (3:12 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Toronto Blue Jays+1.5last 5

Cover rate40%2/5
Avg margin (-0.8)avg -0.8vs -1.5
-64

New York Yankees-1.5last 5

Cover rate40%2/5
40%Cover % (form)40%
H2H cover (Toronto Blue Jays +1.5)60%3/5

Total Runs: Under 7.5 Looking Solid

The Total Runs market is set at 7.5 runs, with the Under at 1.8 and Over at 2.0. Looking at scoring trends, both sides are averaging 3.2 runs for per game over their last five overall outings. Toronto allows 3.2 runs against per game in that span, while New York concedes just 2.4 runs against per game.

Adding to the case for a lower-scoring affair, the head-to-head average total score across their five clashes this season is 6.8 runs. Four of their five meetings in 2026 have produced seven runs or fewer, including the recent 3-1 result on 15 Aug. The data suggests the Under 7.5 line rates a real chance of landing.

Total RunsOdds correct as at 4:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Big tickOur tip: Under 7.5. The average total score in five head-to-head clashes this season is 6.8 runs, and both teams average just 3.2 runs per game over their last five.

Tipped at $1.80 (3:12 am AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total runs

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 7.5.

Toronto Blue Jays games (n=5)avg 7.2vs 7.5
212
New York Yankees games (n=5)avg 8vs 7.5
212
H2H meetings (n=5)avg 6.6vs 7.5
212

Hit rate vs 7.5

Toronto Blue Jaysn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
New York Yankeesn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
H2Hn=5
Over 20%Under 80%
3.2Avg runs for (form)3.8

Same Game Multi Options

Same Game Multi options are live for this fixture. Featured combinations include Over 7.5 total runs in the match, J. Sánchez to hit 1+ home runs & Ben Rice to hit 1+ home runs at 29. Alternatively, punters backing New York can look at Yankees to win, Over 4.5 Yankees total runs in the match & Ben Rice to hit 1+ home runs at 6.25. Another option on the board features Blue Jays to win, Over 5.5 Blue Jays total runs in the match & Kazuma Okamoto to hit 1+ home runs at 13.