The Pittsburgh Pirates get set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on Wednesday, 23 September at 8:40 am AEST. Both sides come into this fixture looking to build on last-start victories on 21 September, with Jared Jones taking the mound for Pittsburgh and Andre Pallante starting for St. Louis.
With both teams locked in National League divisional action late in the season, this clash provides plenty of statistical angles. Punters scanning our latest mlb predictions will find two sides trending in very different directions over their past five starts.
Who Will Win? Pirates Packing Serious Momentum
The numbers say Pittsburgh is running hot right now. Sitting third in their division with a 79-77 season record and a +29 run differential, the Pirates come into this fixture riding a four-game winning streak. Their last five games overall tell a clear story: four wins from five, capped off by a 4-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals on 21 September. Over their past five games overall, Pittsburgh has averaged 5.8 runs scored per contest while allowing 4.4 runs.
St. Louis sits fourth in the division with a 76-80 record and a -23 run differential. While the Cardinals are also coming off a victory in their most recent start — a 5-3 win over the Washington Nationals on 21 September — their recent run has been bumpy. Prior to that win, St. Louis dropped four games on the trot, conceding an average of 7.2 runs per game across their last five overall outings while scoring 3.8.
Head-to-head history also jumps off the page in favour of the hosts. Pittsburgh has taken four of the last five meetings between these two clubs, including 6-2 and 7-0 victories in May and consecutive wins in August. At 1.65 in head-to-head betting, Pittsburgh rates a real chance to defend home turf, while St. Louis sits at 2.25.
Tipped at $1.65 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Run Line Edge
The handicap line sits at -1.5 runs for Pittsburgh at 2.45, with St. Louis getting a +1.5 run start at 1.55. Across their last five victories, Pittsburgh holds an average winning margin of 2 runs, which gives that -1.5 home line a big tick for those backing a multi-run victory.
On the flip side, St. Louis will look to Andre Pallante to keep things tight on the mound. For those looking at the visitors to stay competitive, St. Louis at +1.5 offers coverage if they can tighten up a defense that has allowed 7.2 runs per match over their last five overall games.
Tipped at $2.45 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Line cover (form)
Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.
Pittsburgh Pirates-1.5last 5
St. Louis Cardinals+1.5last 5
Total Runs Outlook
The total runs market is set at 7.5 runs, with the Over at 2.05 and the Under at 1.75. The historical data between these two teams sits right around this line, with an average combined total of 7.4 runs across their previous five head-to-head meetings.
Pittsburgh's offense has been lively, scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game across their last five outings. Given that St. Louis games have seen high scoring due to 7.2 runs conceded per match over their past five, the numbers suggest a strong case for the Over 7.5 runs line.
Tipped at $2.05 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total runs
Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 7.5.
Hit rate vs 7.5