Major League Baseball action lands at Great American Ball Park this Friday, 18 Sept, with first pitch set for 2:40 am AEST. The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Cincinnati looking to extend their winning run, while the Cincinnati Reds are desperate to turn things around on their home deck.

The visitors sit atop their division with a 92-59 season record, while the Reds sit 5th in the NL division at 70-81. With home starting pitcher Brady Singer taking the mound for Cincinnati, this matchup delivers plenty of punch for punters staying up late.

Who Will Win?

The numbers say the Dodgers hold a massive upper hand heading into this clash. Los Angeles comes in off back-to-back victories, including a 4-0 shutout against Cincinnati on Wed, 16 Sept. Over their last 5 overall games, the Dodgers are averaging 4.2 runs scored while giving up just 2.6 runs per game.

Cincinnati enters this contest coming off that 0-4 defeat to LA, marking four losses in their last five overall starts. Across their last 5 overall outings, the Reds have conceded an average of 8.8 runs while scoring just 2.8.

Head-to-head history heavily favours the Dodgers as well. Los Angeles has won all five recent meetings listed between these teams, outscoring the Reds 4-0, 4-1, 14-1, 3-2, and 6-3. Right now, head-to-head odds have the Dodgers priced as 1.58 favourites, while the Reds sit at 2.40.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 2:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Big tickOur tip: Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have won back-to-back games and swept the last five meetings against Cincinnati.

Tipped at $1.58 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

4Season avg runs for4.8
5.4Season avg runs against4.1
46%Season win rate62%
3.8Last 5 avg runs for6
60%Last-five win rate80%

Line Analysis

The line is set at 1.5 runs, putting the Dodgers on -1.5 and the Reds at +1.5. Covering the spread looks like a big tick for Los Angeles based on recent scoring margins.

Over their last 5 overall games, the Dodgers boast an average winning margin of 3.7 runs. Every single one of their three victories in that five-game sample came by three runs or more (4-0, 4-1, and 6-2).

On the flip side, Cincinnati's average loss margin across their last 5 overall games is 7.8 runs. When breaking down your mlb picks for Friday morning, the form lines give a strong edge to the visitors covering the -1.5 line at 1.90.

LineOdds correct as at 2:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Solid tickOur tip: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5. Los Angeles boasts an average winning margin of 3.7 runs across their last five overall games, with all three wins coming by 3 or more runs.

Tipped at $1.90 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Cincinnati Reds+1.5last 5

Cover rate60%3/5
Avg margin (-0.2)avg -0.2vs -1.5
-68

Los Angeles Dodgers-1.5last 5

Cover rate80%4/5
60%Cover % (form)80%
H2H cover (Cincinnati Reds +1.5)40%2/5

Total Runs

The total runs market is set at 9.5 runs. While the Reds' recent overall games have seen plenty of opposition scoring, the recent head-to-head clashes between these two sides tell a much tighter story.

The average combined score across their past five head-to-head meetings is 7.6 runs. In fact, four of those five matchups finished with eight or fewer total runs scored, including 4-0, 4-1, 3-2, and 6-3 scorelines.

With Los Angeles holding opponents to just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 overall outings, Under 9.5 runs at 2.00 jumps off the page as a solid angle.

Total RunsOdds correct as at 2:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Solid tickOur tip: Under 9.5. The average total score across their last five head-to-head meetings sits at 7.6 runs, well below the 9.5 line.

Tipped at $2.00 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total runs

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 9.5.

Cincinnati Reds games (n=5)avg 7.8vs 9.5
314
Los Angeles Dodgers games (n=5)avg 8.6vs 9.5
314
H2H meetings (n=5)avg 7.4vs 9.5
314

Hit rate vs 9.5

Cincinnati Redsn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
Los Angeles Dodgersn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
H2Hn=5
Over 20%Under 80%
3.8Avg runs for (form)6