Major League Baseball action lands at Great American Ball Park this Friday, 18 Sept, with first pitch set for 2:40 am AEST. The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Cincinnati looking to extend their winning run, while the Cincinnati Reds are desperate to turn things around on their home deck.
The visitors sit atop their division with a 92-59 season record, while the Reds sit 5th in the NL division at 70-81. With home starting pitcher Brady Singer taking the mound for Cincinnati, this matchup delivers plenty of punch for punters staying up late.
Who Will Win?
The numbers say the Dodgers hold a massive upper hand heading into this clash. Los Angeles comes in off back-to-back victories, including a 4-0 shutout against Cincinnati on Wed, 16 Sept. Over their last 5 overall games, the Dodgers are averaging 4.2 runs scored while giving up just 2.6 runs per game.
Cincinnati enters this contest coming off that 0-4 defeat to LA, marking four losses in their last five overall starts. Across their last 5 overall outings, the Reds have conceded an average of 8.8 runs while scoring just 2.8.
Head-to-head history heavily favours the Dodgers as well. Los Angeles has won all five recent meetings listed between these teams, outscoring the Reds 4-0, 4-1, 14-1, 3-2, and 6-3. Right now, head-to-head odds have the Dodgers priced as 1.58 favourites, while the Reds sit at 2.40.
Tipped at $1.58 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Line Analysis
The line is set at 1.5 runs, putting the Dodgers on -1.5 and the Reds at +1.5. Covering the spread looks like a big tick for Los Angeles based on recent scoring margins.
Over their last 5 overall games, the Dodgers boast an average winning margin of 3.7 runs. Every single one of their three victories in that five-game sample came by three runs or more (4-0, 4-1, and 6-2).
On the flip side, Cincinnati's average loss margin across their last 5 overall games is 7.8 runs. When breaking down your mlb picks for Friday morning, the form lines give a strong edge to the visitors covering the -1.5 line at 1.90.
Tipped at $1.90 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Line cover (form)
Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.
Cincinnati Reds+1.5last 5
Los Angeles Dodgers-1.5last 5
Total Runs
The total runs market is set at 9.5 runs. While the Reds' recent overall games have seen plenty of opposition scoring, the recent head-to-head clashes between these two sides tell a much tighter story.
The average combined score across their past five head-to-head meetings is 7.6 runs. In fact, four of those five matchups finished with eight or fewer total runs scored, including 4-0, 4-1, 3-2, and 6-3 scorelines.
With Los Angeles holding opponents to just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 overall outings, Under 9.5 runs at 2.00 jumps off the page as a solid angle.
Tipped at $2.00 (12:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Total runs
Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 9.5.
Hit rate vs 9.5