Big clash at Wrigley Field on Thursday, 17 Sept at 9:40 am AEST! The Atlanta Braves come into this one sitting on an 89-63 record, while the Chicago Cubs hold an 84-68 season line. Both sides are looking to lay down a major marker in this National League showdown.

If you are hunting for the top mlb picks, the stats give us plenty to sink our teeth into for this morning slate. With Shota Imanaga expected to take the mound for the Cubs against JR Ritchie for the Braves, we have a cracking pitching matchup on our hands.

Who Will Win?

The numbers say the Cubs rate a real chance at home, holding an 84-68 record overall, but they are coming off a 6–3 defeat against Atlanta on Wednesday, 16 Sept. That result leaves Chicago at three wins from their last five overall outings (L, W, L, W, W).

Meanwhile, the Braves jump off the page with 89 total wins this season and come into this fixture coming off that 6–3 victory over Chicago in their last start on 16 Sept. Across their last five overall encounters, Atlanta has logged a W, L, L, W, W run, averaging 6.2 runs for and 5.2 against.

Head-to-head history across five meetings in 2026 shows Atlanta winning three times, including 6–3 and 5–2 results, while Chicago grabbed a 7–3 win on 15 Sept and a 2–0 victory in May. On the head-to-head market, Chicago holds favourite status at 1.68 while Atlanta sits at 2.20.

MarketsOdds correct as at 9:12 am AEST. Odds can change.

Odds subject to change. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Run Line Edge

Looking at the line market, Chicago lays a -1.5 run handicap at 2.45, with Atlanta getting +1.5 at 1.55.

Across their last five overall games, the Cubs have registered an average winning margin of 5 runs in their victories and lost by 2 runs on average in their defeats. In their last five home games specifically, Chicago has put up 5.8 runs for and allowed 3.6 runs against.

Atlanta's scoring across their last five overall games shows an average winning margin of 4.7 runs and an average loss margin of 4.5 runs. Given Atlanta won the most recent clash 6–3 on Wednesday, taking the Braves with the +1.5 start gets a big tick.

LineOdds correct as at 9:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Chicago Cubs -1.52.35Our tipAtlanta Braves +1.51.60
Solid tickOur tip: Atlanta Braves +1.5. Atlanta comes off a 6–3 victory over Chicago in their last start and boasts 89 wins on the season, making the +1.5 line attractive.

Tipped at $1.55 (6:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Chicago Cubs-1.5last 5

Cover rate40%2/5
Avg margin (0)avg 0vs 1.5
-46

Atlanta Braves+1.5last 5

Cover rate80%4/5
40%Cover % (form)80%
H2H cover (Chicago Cubs -1.5)40%2/5

Total Runs Outlook

The total runs line is set at 7.5 runs, with the Over priced at 1.80 and the Under at 2.00.

The offensive numbers suggest plenty of scoring potential. Over their last five overall starts, Chicago is averaging 5.8 runs for and 3.6 runs against. Atlanta's last five overall outings tell a similar story, with an average of 6.2 runs scored and 5.2 runs allowed.

While the historical head-to-head average across their past five meetings sits at 6.6 total runs, both teams are scoring freely in recent starts. Backing Over 7.5 runs rates a solid chance based on current form.

Total RunsOdds correct as at 9:12 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipOver 7.51.95Under 7.51.85
Big tickOur tip: Over 7.5. Chicago is averaging 5.8 runs for over their last five overall games while Atlanta is averaging 6.2 runs for, pointing toward a high-scoring contest.

Tipped at $1.80 (6:12 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total runs

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 7.5.

Chicago Cubs games (n=5)avg 9.2vs 7.5
214
Atlanta Braves games (n=5)avg 7.2vs 7.5
214
H2H meetings (n=5)avg 6.6vs 7.5
214

Hit rate vs 7.5

Chicago Cubsn=5
Over 80%Under 20%
Atlanta Bravesn=5
Over 60%Under 40%
H2Hn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
4.6Avg runs for (form)4.4

Same Game Multi Options

Punters looking at multi combinations have popular options on the board. One featured combo includes Braves to win, Over 4.5 Braves total runs in the match & Matt Olson to hit 1+ home runs at 8.00.

Another featured option offers Cubs to win, Over 4.5 Cubs total runs in the match & Seiya Suzuki to hit 1+ home runs at 9.00.