The Boston Red Sox square off against the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park on Thu, 10 Sept, 8:45 am AEST. Boston holds an 80–66 record this season sitting third in the AL, while the Angels come in at 55–90. Probable starters on the mound are Jake Bennett for Boston and Ryan Johnson for the visiting Angels.

Who Will Win?

The Red Sox jump off the page with 80 wins under their belt this season, though they are coming off a 1–6 home defeat against Los Angeles on Wed, 9 Sept. That loss snapped a four-game winning streak. On the flip side, the Angels are coming off a win after taking out that 6–1 victory at Fenway Park in their last outing.

Looking at recent head-to-head history, Boston has taken four of the last five meetings between the sides, including 5–2, 7–5, and 8–1 wins earlier in the campaign. When sizing up expert mlb picks, the numbers say Boston remains well placed overall despite the midweek bump.

Head to HeadOdds correct as at 8:13 am AEST. Odds can change.
Our tipBoston Red Sox1.45Los Angeles Angels2.78
Big tickOur tip: Boston Red Sox. Boston has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups against Los Angeles and holds an 80-66 record on the season.

Tipped at $1.45 (9:13 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Head-to-head context

Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.

4.7Season avg runs for3.4
3.6Season avg runs against4.1
54%Season win rate38%
2.4Last 5 avg runs for3.6
40%Last-five win rate40%

Line & Spread

Boston enters as favourite laying -1.5 runs on the line. Across their last five overall games, Boston has posted an average winning margin of 2.8 runs when they get the win.

Meanwhile, the Angels' average loss margin over their last five overall starts stands at just 1.7 runs. With three of the last five clashes between these two decided by three runs or fewer, Los Angeles getting +1.5 runs rates a real chance to keep it tight.

LineOdds correct as at 8:13 am AEST. Odds can change.
Boston Red Sox -1.51.90Our tipLos Angeles Angels +1.51.90
Solid tickOur tip: Los Angeles Angels +1.5. The Angels average loss margin in their last five overall starts is 1.7 runs, showing they keep games competitive.

Tipped at $1.85 (9:13 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Line cover (form)

Cover rate applies this match's live spread to recent completed scores — not a season ATS record.

Boston Red Sox-1.5last 5

Cover rate20%1/5
Avg margin (-0.6)avg -0.6vs 1.5
-76

Los Angeles Angels+1.5last 5

Cover rate40%2/5
20%Cover % (form)40%
H2H cover (Boston Red Sox -1.5)80%4/5

Total Runs Analysis

The total line is set at 9.5 runs for Thursday morning's showdown. Recent output from both clubs suggests low-scoring battles are becoming the norm.

Boston's scoring in their last five overall games averages 3.0 runs for and 1.8 against. The Angels mirror that defensive squeeze, averaging 2.8 runs for and 1.8 against over their last five overall starts. With the head-to-head average total standing at 8.4 runs across their past five meetings, the numbers give the Under a big tick.

Total RunsOdds correct as at 8:13 am AEST. Odds can change.
Over 9.52.00Our tipUnder 9.51.80
Big tickOur tip: Under 9.5. Both teams are conceding just 1.8 runs per game across their last five overall, while past meetings average 8.4 total runs.

Tipped at $1.80 (9:13 pm AEST). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.

Total runs

Combined score from recent completed games · marker shows live line 9.5.

Boston Red Sox games (n=5)avg 5.4vs 9.5
114
Los Angeles Angels games (n=5)avg 9.4vs 9.5
114
H2H meetings (n=5)avg 8.4vs 9.5
114

Hit rate vs 9.5

Boston Red Soxn=5
Over 0%Under 100%
Los Angeles Angelsn=5
Over 40%Under 60%
H2Hn=5
Over 20%Under 80%
2.4Avg runs for (form)3.6

Same Game Multi Options

If you are looking at a Same Game Multi at Fenway, popular combinations are available on the board. Angels to win, Over 4.5 Angels total runs in the match & Mike Trout to hit 1+ home runs is priced at 9.

Alternatively, Over 9.5 total runs in the match, Wilyer Abreu to hit 1+ home runs & Zach Neto to hit 1+ home runs sits at 23.