The New York Mets pulled off an upset at Truist Park, downing the Atlanta Braves 8–5 on Tuesday morning. The Mets came in as underdog with longer odds but both teams were riding momentum into the contest — the Braves coming off a 2–1 win over the Yankees on Monday, the Mets backing up an 11–1 demolition of Pittsburgh the same day. In the end, the visitor's bat proved too heavy.
Atlanta opened as the favourite on the Head to Head market, but saw their price drift from 1.65 to 1.68 in the lead-up. New York firmed from 2.25 to 2.2, a sign the market was leaning toward the upset. The Mets' 4.5 runs per game average last five was matched by the Braves, but New York's recent scoring punch — 7.2 runs per game over their last five — gave them an edge the odds didn't fully respect.
How the tips went
Atlanta Braves (Head to Head) — Loss. The favourite couldn't get over the line at 1.74, with the Mets delivering the upset 8–5.
New York Mets +1.5 (Line) — Win. The Mets covered the spread with a three-run victory, well clear of the +1.5 line.
Over 8.5 runs (Total) — Win. The match finished at 13 combined runs, well over the 8.5 line at 1.9.